Apart from the three-language formula, delimitation of parliamentary constituencies is the other contentious and controversial issue now. How long the debate and rhetoric on language last beyond the ongoing Lok Sabha session needs to be seen, but the delimitation conundrum is a highly argumentative and confrontational issue that is not going to die down soon.
This is because chief ministers of the southern states see the Narendra Modi government moving towards delimitation before the 2029 general election. Their concern is that the populous northern states will get more Lok Sabha seats at their cost.
The delimitation issue has triggered sharp reactions, particularly in Tamil Nadu, where the DMK chief minister, M.K. Stalin, has called for a Joint Action Committee of MPs and party representatives from southern states.
An all-party meeting convened by Stalin on March 5 asked the Union government to suspend the delimitation exercise scheduled for 2026 and freeze the numbers and state-wise distribution of Lok Sabha seats for another 30 years. Stalin also proposed that if the number of parliamentary seats increases, it should be done based on the 1971 census.
Delimitation has been a serious and permanent concern in the South for decades. The southern states have been complaining that they are penalised for their efforts on population control, which has resulted in the reduction of their relative shares in central taxes.
Now, in the event of a fresh delimitation based on the post-2026 census, they will lose their relative share in parliament representation as well. Their concern about delimitation is that it represents both economic and political marginalisation of the South — of being taxed more, represented less, and sidelined in national policymaking. This is not an imaginary fear but a real worry based on the divergence in economic and demographic trajectories of the North and South.
Recently, home minister Amit Shah gave an ‘assurance’ that no South Indian state will lose a Lok Sabha seat due to delimitation, addressing long-held apprehensions of southern states about losing representation in parliament if delimitation were to be carried out based on the latest population data.
But he did not clarify which population census would form the basis of delimitation. If there is a proportionate rise in the number of seats based on population, as Shah has suggested, the southern states, which, unlike many northern states, adhered to the central government’s population control measures in the 1970s and 80s, stand to lose.
The population of Tamil Nadu in 1951 was marginally higher than Bihar; in 1971, Bihar’s population was higher than Tamil Nadu’s. Today, according to media reports, the difference is around 10 crores. The same applies to Uttar Pradesh. The difference between the populations of Kerala and Madhya Pradesh is an increase of 300 percent for the latter.
The North and South are worlds apart: the six largest northern states have 600 million people – twice the South’s population – but lag far behind in terms of poverty, industry, education, and social mobility. While it makes sense to redistribute resources to alleviate poverty in the North, UP alone, according to media reports, receives more federal tax revenue than all five southern states!
The opposition to delimitation must be seen from this sense of ‘injustice’ being meted out: states that did not follow the Centre’s guidelines on population control are being ‘rewarded’ with more parliamentary seats, which amounts to greater voice in legislation. This will, as the southern states fear, further shift the balance of power northwards. This, in turn, would adversely affect their political and legislative powers in a federal structure.
Such a scenario would be akin to punishing states that have performed well on economic growth and population control. The divergence in economic and population trajectories between the North and South, giving an ‘unfair advantage’ to the former, is at the core of the latter’s disquiet over delimitation.
The Constitution mandates delimitation, which should be carried out after every decadal census to determine the number of seats and redraw the boundaries of Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies. The first Delimitation Commission of 1952 set the number of Lok Sabha seats at 494; the second, in 1963, using the 1961 census data, increased the number to 522; and the third commission in 1973 raised the number of Lok Sabha seats to 543, based on the 1971 census. However, in 1976, delimitation was frozen by the then Congress government as part of efforts to encourage population control measures.
Subsequently, apprehending a big loss in political representation, the southern states had opposed the constitution of a Delimitation Commission after the 2001 census. As a result, the then Vajpayee-led NDA government extended the freeze until 2026 through a constitutional amendment. Now once the freeze on the number and state-wise distribution ends in 2026, the Union government will be required to constitute a Delimitation Commission, which can be done only after the completion of the next census. India has not had the decadal census since 2011, and it is not clear when the much-delayed 2021 census will be done. The deadline of 2026 assumes that any delimitation exercise could be conducted only after the first census after 2026.
The southern states are concerned about the possibility of the delayed 2021 census being notified now and published by 2027, which could pull the delimitation date forward. In such a scenario, it would become the first census after the 2026 deadline, and the delimitation of parliamentary constituencies could be carried out based on its population figures.
This could impact the 2029 general election with a substantially larger number of Lok Sabha seats redistributed afresh. So far, the Centre’s response on delimitation remains unclear. Even if the southern states gain additional constituencies on a pro-rata basis, as Shah recently said, there is no clarity whether the pro-rata distribution will be based on the current seat percentage or on the population figures.
Lack of clarity and suspicion over the Modi government’s intent behind delimitation has reinforced fears of the South losing its voice to the numerical advantage the North already enjoys in parliament. If delimitation proceeds before 2029, it could reshape India’s political landscape to the BJP’s advantage but at the cost of growing North-South confrontation. Delimitation can’t be a pure mathematical exercise; it must be about finding an equilibrium that preserves democratic representation and federal harmony. The southern concern could be addressed by freezing seat allocations for decades to allow the North to catch up.
The writer is a senior independent Mumbai-based journalist. He tweets at @ali_chougule
