South Asia stands at a pivotal juncture, where shifting geopolitics and internal upheavals could significantly impact regional stability. Among these, the current situation in Bangladesh demands India’s urgent attention. What may appear as a domestic crisis in our eastern neighbour has broader implications, creating potential opportunities for Pakistan and China to intensify their strategic footprints in the region.
Bangladesh’s Internal Turmoil
Bangladesh, historically a bastion of stability in a turbulent region, now faces growing political unrest, economic challenges, and discontent among its population. With elections on the horizon, the political landscape has become highly polarised. Protests and violence are escalating, testing the resilience of its governance and institutions.
The chaos risks fostering an environment ripe for external manipulation. Pakistan, which has long sought to undermine India’s eastern borders, and China, with its expanding Belt and Road ambitions, are likely to see this as an opportunity to exploit Bangladesh’s vulnerabilities.
The China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Triangle
China’s growing influence in South Asia is no secret. With infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has made significant inroads in Bangladesh. Ports like Chittagong are critical to China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, aimed at encircling India with strategic assets.
Pakistan, on the other hand, seeks to destabilise India by fuelling unrest in Bangladesh. Historical ties with radical elements and intelligence operations in the region are well-documented. The volatile situation in Bangladesh could allow Pakistan to reignite such activities, posing a dual-front threat to India’s security.
Together, Pakistan and China could leverage Bangladesh’s instability to create pressure on India, further complicating New Delhi’s already complex security and diplomatic challenges.
Implications for India
For India, the stakes are extraordinarily high. Instability in Bangladesh could lead to:
Refugee Crisis: An escalation of internal unrest in Bangladesh could trigger mass migration into Indian states like West Bengal and Assam, straining resources and heightening social tensions.
Border Security Concerns: Increased infiltration by extremist groups and the trafficking of arms and narcotics could undermine the security of India’s eastern states.
Strategic Encirclement: China’s growing footprint in Bangladesh could further its encirclement strategy, posing a direct threat to India’s eastern seaboard.
Economic Disruption: As a key trading partner, instability in Bangladesh could adversely affect India’s economic interests in the region.
India’s Response: A Strategic Necessity
India must act decisively to mitigate these threats and foster stability in Bangladesh. The following steps could be instrumental:
Diplomatic Engagement: Strengthen ties with Dhaka to ensure India remains its trusted partner amidst political and economic crises. Proactive diplomacy should counter China’s influence and prevent Bangladesh from drifting towards Beijing’s orbit.
Regional Cooperation: Promote initiatives like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) to solidify regional alliances and reduce external dependencies.
Border Management: Enhance border security to curb illegal infiltration and trafficking while preparing for potential humanitarian challenges.
Economic Support: Offer targeted economic aid and investment in Bangladesh to counterbalance Chinese loans and ensure economic stability.
Track External Influence: Strengthen intelligence operations to monitor and counter any attempts by Pakistan or China to exploit Bangladesh’s internal situation.
A Test for India’s Leadership
The unfolding scenario in Bangladesh serves as a reminder of the delicate nature of South Asian geopolitics. For India, it is both a challenge and an opportunity to assert its leadership in the region. A proactive approach, guided by strategic foresight, can ensure that Bangladesh remains a stable and friendly neighbour rather than becoming a pawn in the larger geopolitical game.
India’s actions today will not only shape the future of its eastern border but also define its role as a stabilising force in South Asia. The stakes are high, and the time to act is now.
Dr Ajeenkya D Y Patil is an educationist, entrepreneur, and geopolitical observer deeply invested in regional stability and progress
