Nitish Kumar can be called the biggest Bazigar of Indian politics. Despite never getting the majority on his own, he has managed to remain chief minister of Bihar for almost 20 years, except for a few months in between. And he is still jockeying for the next term when his popularity is at an all-time low and the party is in shambles.
He is not keeping good health, either. It requires a brilliant political mind and opportunism of the highest order to juggle two parties with contrasting ideologies effortlessly. He has successfully played with the BJP and RJD; both parties hate each other. But both are comfortable in his company and let him exploit them.
But this time, Nitish Kumar might be in serious trouble. This time, the BJP is going to call his bluff and show him the door if he insists more on the chief minister’s chair.
The assembly elections are almost six months away. But all three political parties have started preparations. Enough hints are being thrown about future alliances and relationships. Nitish Kumar knows that the BJP may not oblige him with the top chair in the state and may like to have its own man in Bihar like Delhi and Odisha, where it has managed to install its governments.
Bihar is the only Hindi-speaking state where the BJP has not been able to form a government on its own. Till now, it has played second fiddle to Nitish Kumar. In 2020, surprisingly, the BJP did not bargain for the chief ministership despite having 2/3rd more seats in the assembly.
The BJP had 74 assembly seats, and Nitish Kumar’s party, the JDU, had only 43. It was also rumoured then, during the elections, that the BJP used Chirag Paswan to sabotage his elections. It was assumed that since the BJP had more numbers, it might ask Nitish Kumar for support. But that did not happen.
The 2025 elections may be a great opportunity for the BJP to fulfil its ambition. Bihar has been one of the great failings of the BJP. Despite the Ram Mandir upsurge, Modi’s charisma, and Amit Shah’s organisational acumen, it has failed to crack code Bihar to win elections there.
Under Modi’s leadership, the BJP has expanded its base tremendously. It has formed a government in Haryana, where the party was once considered to be a fringe player, but since 2014, it has been in the government and is still going strong.
In Odisha, it defeated Naveen Patnaik, undefeated in the state since 1997. But most spectacularly, it not only conquered the Kalinga state in the assembly election but also in the parliament election. It almost decimated BJD.
Similarly, Delhi was a Waterloo for Modi, where it faced two of the most humiliating defeats in 2015 and 2020, but in 2025, Kejriwal’s machinations did not work. The BJP formed a government in Delhi after 27 years. The BJP broke new ground in Bengal and Telangana, and the party surprised everyone with its electoral performances in these two states.
Even in Bihar’s neighbourhood, UP, after the initial success in the early 1990s, the BJP was reduced to being a fringe player. In the 2012 assembly election, the party had only 15% of the votes in UP. Still, it stunned the whole world with its mesmerising success in the 2014 parliament elections when it won 73 seats from a total of 80 along with its ally, Apna Dal; in 2017, it had another spectacular victory in the state, winning more than 300 seats in the assembly elections.
And if Yogi Adityanath today is seen as a potential successor to Modi, it is because of his electoral victory in 2022. But for some strange reason, the BJP avoided taking the bold step of contesting the election alone in Bihar. It is normally said that the BJP is not confident of getting any support from Nitish Kumar’s core vote base of Kurmi, Koiri, Kushwaha and the most backward among OBCs and Dalits; and without their support, the BJP will not be in a position to form the government. But unless the BJP decides to contest alone, how will the party know that Nitish Kumar’s core vote base is willing to shift to the BJP or not? The party has successfully done that experiment in UP.
Like Bihar, UP is also a bastion of caste politics, but it has broken the glass ceiling here. A large section of OBCs and Dalits moved towards the BJP. This is the basic reason that the BJP could form governments in the state in 2017 and 2022 and its massive success in the 2014 and 2019 general elections in UP. In the 2024 parliament election, the same section of OBCs and Dalits got disillusioned with the BJP, and the number of seats dwindled to 33.
It is also argued that the BJP doesn’t have a bankable face in Bihar. But the same was true for UP, Delhi and Odisha. In UP, the BJP contested the election in 2017 without any face. Once the results were announced, Yogi’s name came as a surprise. But today, Yogi has emerged as a formidable mass leader. The same strategy can work in Bihar, too. Provided the BJP decides to go solo.
There is strong anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar. In the latest survey carried out by C-Voter, Tejaswi Yadav is far ahead of Nitish Kumar as a choice for chief ministership. Nitish Kumar’s record as a chief minister is abysmally low. Bihar is still the poorest state in the country, with a per-capita income of $813, which is the lowest amongst all Indian states.
Around 51.9% of people in Bihar are still poor, according to the NITI Aayog report, which is also the lowest among states. No doubt, law and order have improved tremendously under Nitish Kumar. Roads are far better when compared to the Lalu regime.
He took a few good initiatives for girl child education in his first term between 2005 and 2010. But in his subsequent terms, he did not do anything. He kept Bihar poor. No major industry moved to Bihar despite low labour costs. Migration from Bihar to other states for menial jobs is very high. People are unhappy despite their caste loyalty.
Even in 2020, Modi and Nitish Kumar had a miraculous escape. The Mahagathbandhan led by Tejaswi had also upset the tables. The BJP-led alliance was ahead of the Mahagathbandhan only by 0.03% of the votes. Since then, enough water has flowed into the Ganga.
The BJP knows that if it still goes with Nitish Kumar, it might be up for a setback. It is no wonder that the BJP is keeping its options open and not saying that Nitish will be its chief ministerial face in the election.
The writer is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B
