The Indian stock market is going through a steady decline. In February, the Nifty 50 declined the fifth consecutive month, which is the longest monthly decline since 1996. On Monday, March 3, the Sensex fell 112 points to close at 73,085.94, while the Nifty closed at just 5 points at 22,119.30.
Meanwhile, Alra Capital strategist Biju Samuel has predicted a big decline in the market. He believes that the Indian market has entered the long -term recession era, which may continue for at least three quarters.
How much will the market fall?
According to Biju Samuel, the Nifty may have a decline of 2,500 points. They estimate that the Nifty may come down 20,000 or even and will eventually support the 19,500 level.
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Currently, the Nifty 50 has already fallen 16% before its highest level of September 2024 of its 26,277.
According to Samuel:
- The Nifty may fall below the low -level day (21,300) on the election result.
- The main support level will be at 19,500.
- The market is currently in the initial stage of recession and it can continue for at least 18-24 months.
BSE Sensex also does not look good:
- On September 27 last year, the Sensex was at its record high 85,978.25.
- So far, the Sensex has fallen 12,780.15 points (14.86%).
- The Nifty has fallen from its highest level 26,277.35 to 4,152.65 points (15.80%) of 27 September 2024.
How long is the expectation of recovery?
The Nifty is expected to go below the June 4 low (21,281), the day the Lok Sabha elections were declared.
According to Samuel,
- In the last three months, the Nifty climbed around 5,000 points and reached a record high in September.
- But now it is in the first phase of recession, which may continue for the next 18-24 months.
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Samuel hopes that the US market will continue to rise, while the Indian market may lag.
- Recovery is possible after the fall of last week in Wall Street.
- India, which was doing strong performance in the last four years, can now be weak.
- The Indian market has already seen a “sustainable peak” and will now be in a long recession.
