The recently concluded COP 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, laid the groundwork for global climate action, but the real test lies in addressing 2025’s climate challenges. As the world faces intensifying climate crises, the spectre of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency looms large, threatening to disrupt the fragile consensus on climate action. COP 29 has let down Asia though India has got potential to position itself at an imperative position to contribute in taking the COP 29 crusade to the next level in 2025.
Challenges in 2025:
Climate Finance Shortfalls: The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of $1.2 trillion annually by 2030 is ambitious but fraught with uncertainty. Developing nations demand immediate disbursements to bridge gaps in mitigation and adaptation efforts. Delayed financial contributions from developed nations risk stalling key projects in vulnerable regions.
Energy Transition Struggles: Despite commitments, transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy remains sluggish. Political, technological, and economic barriers persist, particularly in developing nations. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) adds further complexity, potentially disadvantaging emerging economies.
Operationalizing Commitments: Governance of the Loss and Damage Fund, established at COP28 and bolstered at COP29, did not address concerns about transparency and accountability to gain trust from recipient nations. Implementing Article 6 mechanisms for carbon markets demands capacity building in developing nations.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical rivalries, including tensions between the U.S. and China, risk overshadowing collaborative climate efforts. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and African nations continue to face disproportionate impacts, with their demands for climate justice often side-lined.
The Trump Effect:
An ensuing Trump presidency in 2025 poses significant risks to global climate action:
Policy Reversals: Trump’s first term saw the U.S. exit the Paris Agreement, setting back international climate cooperation. Another term could lead to reduced funding for global climate initiatives, undermining trust in multilateral commitments.
Climate Denialism: Trump’s rhetoric on climate issues may embolden other nations to de prioritize climate action, stalling momentum achieved at COP29. Impact on Developing Nations: Reduced U.S. contributions would disproportionately hurt vulnerable nations relying on external financial aid for climate resilience.
Erosion of Global Leadership: A Trump-led U.S. would likely withdraw from leadership roles in climate diplomacy, creating a vacuum that other nations may struggle to fill.
India’s Role in 2025:
India, as a major developing nation, has positioned itself as a leader in advocating for climate justice and equitable action. Its contributions and leadership will be critical in navigating the challenges of 2025.
Advocacy for Fair Finance: India has consistently pushed developed nations to honour their financial commitments. Its demand for $1 trillion annually starting next year underscores the urgency of immediate action.
Renewable Energy Transition: With a target of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, India is investing heavily in domestic manufacturing of solar panels and enhancing grid infrastructure.
Global Initiatives: India’s International Solar Alliance (ISA) and Mission Life (Lifestyle for Environment) continue to serve as models for global collaboration on sustainable practices.
Balancing Development and Sustainability: India’s approach emphasizes the dual goals of economic growth and environmental sustainability, offering a pragmatic framework for other developing nations.
Perspectives from Other Nations:
European Union: The EU remains a key player in climate diplomacy, committing $300 million to the Loss and Damage Fund. However, its CBAM policy faces criticism for penalizing exports from developing nations.
United States: Under the Biden administration, the U.S. pledged $200 million to the Loss and Damage Fund, but the prospect of a Trump presidency casts doubt on future commitments.
China: Despite being the largest emitter, China has reaffirmed its goal to peak emissions before 2030. However, its’ Belt and Road Initiative raises concerns about environmental sustainability.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS): SIDS continue to call for urgent action to address rising sea levels, emphasizing the existential threat posed by inaction.
African Nations: African nations have highlighted the need for $1.3 trillion annually to meet their climate goals, emphasizing the disproportionate impact of climate change on the continent.
COP 29 was anticipated as a pivotal climate summit, addressing the persistent shortfall in global climate finance commitments. Central to its agenda was the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), designed to replace the long-unmet $100 billion annual pledge by developed nations. The widening gap in climate finance underscores the pressing need for a more ambitious financial framework to alleviate the escalating burdens faced by developing nations.
COP 29 has left Asia disappointed by failing to address its unique climate challenges and financial needs adequately. Despite contributing significantly to global emissions reduction efforts, Asian nations received limited assurance on predictable and equitable climate finance. The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) remained vague, with no clear pathway to secure the $1.3 trillion annually demanded by developing countries. The summit’s focus is on global mechanisms, such as carbon markets, side-lined region-specific adaptation priorities. Asia’s vulnerabilities, including rising sea levels and extreme weather events, require urgent attention, yet COP 29 fell short in offering tangible support, leaving the region grappling with unmet expectations.
Looking Ahead:
The funding challenges extend well beyond India, as developing nations collectively face monumental needs. The Independent High-Level Expert Group estimates that approximately $1 trillion annually is required for effective climate action, excluding China. The African Group has proposed a target of $1.3 trillion, while the Arab Group suggests $1.1 trillion, both emphasizing the necessity of high-quality, concessional financing. According to the UNFCCC, developing countries may require up to $6.852 trillion cumulatively by 2030 to meet their NDCs, further illustrating the staggering financial demands. These figures underline the urgency for a transformative global financial framework to ensure climate resilience and sustainability across vulnerable regions.
As the world approaches 2025, the challenges of mobilizing finance, operationalizing COP29 commitments, and navigating geopolitical uncertainties will test the resilience of global climate frameworks. India’s leadership, coupled with collaborative efforts from other nations, will be instrumental in ensuring progress.
The potential return of Trump to the global stage underscores the need for a robust and resilient multilateral system. The international community must rally to maintain momentum, secure financial commitments, and uphold the principles of climate justice. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but collective action remains the only viable path to a sustainable and equitable future.
(Writer is strategic affairs columnist and senior political analyst)
