The run up to the J&K assembly election has triggered a re-alignment of political forces. The mainstream parties comprising PDP, National Conference and the Congress are perceived as being at one end of the spectrum, while parties which have been dubbed as BJP proxies — namely, Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference, Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party — are seen as representing the other end of the spectrum.
The over 100 candidates contesting as independents are again perceived by the general public as ‘BJP stooges.’
The Jamaat-e-Islami (J&K) has emerged as the dark horse in this election, They are running a quiet door-todoor campaign and though their candidates publicly claim they are willing to adhere to democratic practices, political observers in the valley are taking their statements with a pinch of salt.
The BIP remains isolated in the valley having decided to put up only 19 candidates. If they emerge as the single largest party, they will play the role of kingmaker. As a teacher of political science in the Kashmir University pointed out, “they have the money and through their proxies, they hope to acquire the muscle.”
But the BJP has been facing a great deal of discord in their core constituency comprising the Jammu region. The drastic reduction of their victory margins in the earlier Lok Sabha elections is symptomatic of their dwindling popularity. One reason for this, explains academician Dr Radha Kumar, is that they have approached ‘J&K ideologically rather than taking the ground situation and the people’s aspiration into account’.
What the BJP bigwigs did not anticipate was the massive revolt they have faced during the process of ticket distribution. Former BJP president of the Samba constituency, Kashmira Singh, who has been denied a ticket, was candid enough when he said, ‘‘former NC members such as Surjeet Singh Slathia and former aide of Omar Abdulla Devender Singh Rana have become the present darlings of the BJP.’’
Singh has repeated in several interviews that the very people the BJP rank and file fought against have now taken over their party. Grassroot and district level workers who sacrificed their lives to spread the BJP ideology have been sidelined.
Sadly, the NC -Congress alliance, which was expected to give the BJP a tough fight in the Jammu region, is already losing steam. The selection of candidates for the second phase to be held on September 25 has created much bad blood. Instead of coming up with a taut campaign to fight the BJP’s misgovernance in the last decade, its star campaigners are still to make their presence felt on the ground.
Another decision which has backfired was to slam the door on probable winning candidates from Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party who wanted to return to the Congress on condition that they be given a ticket to fight the elections.Both Tara Chand and G.M. Saroon, known to be close to Azad, wanted to do so, but this did not happen.
The Congress has also drawn a blank in coming up with a strategy to combat the narrative of Hindu nationalism with its strong anti-Muslim thrust to gain the core Hindu votes.
The BJP has also done its best to woo the Pahari voters, who constitute a 10.2- lakh strong vote bank. Paharis account for 6.25 lakh population of Poonch and Rajouri districts while the Gujjars and the Bakerwal are about 11 lakh. While 35 per cent of the Gujjar-Bakerwal population lives in the Rajouri-Poonch belt, the rest are spread across the entire UT.
Ladakh’s foremost inventor and educationist Sonam Wangchuk is leading a march of Ladakhis to the capital as an expression of their collective disgruntlement at the failure of the Centre not to grant them the Sixth Schedule which would have helped protect their fragile environment and their culture. They are also demanding that their Hill Councils be given the same executive powers the yhad enjoyed before Ladakh had been granted UT status.
Observers believe that the political parties will not let go of the issue of the Abrogation of 370 that easily. Dr Radha Kumar believes that this issue will be raised in the new assembly if only to `embarrass the Modi government’.
The BJP will use this demand to cast further aspersions on the J&K parties by calling them anti-national and this will only serve to further alienate the people across the UT.
The voters in the state are not speaking their mind. They are playing their cards close to their chest. Whom they will eventually support is a question vexing the political class
