“April is the cruellest month.” So begins T.S. Eliot’s The Waste Land, one of the 20th century’s most profound poems about alienation. The dark irony of Eliot’s April is not lost on businesses round the world as they prepare for April 2, when US president Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariff rates are expected to kick in.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has already cautioned against the knock-on effects of a trade war on the global economy. “Global growth will slow this year and next, from 3.2 per cent last year to 3.1 per cent and 3 per cent in 2025 and 2026, respectively, while inflation will be stickier than previously expected,” the Paris-based club of 38 rich countries noted in its latest Interim Economic Outlook. Governments need to find ways of addressing their concerns together within the global trading system to avoid a significant ratcheting up of retaliatory trade barriers between countries, the report said.
At stake are living standards across the world.
Trump believes tariffs are the best way to boost US manufacturing. Countries with high trade surpluses with the US are most vulnerable. In Asia, that includes India and several ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries. The US is India’s largest trade partner. India’s tariff rates are much higher than those of the US, especially in specific sectors, like agriculture, textiles, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals.
India and the United States are, currently, negotiating a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) which India hopes will provide protection and benefits. In the meanwhile, India has slashed tariffs on US-made Bourbon whiskey, wines, and even Harley-Davidson motorcycles to ease tensions. There is more to come. India remains vulnerable. “I have a very good relationship with India, but the only problem I have with India is they’re one of the highest tariffing nations in the world,” Trump told Breitbart News.
In Southeast Asia, a region more plugged into the global market than India, tariffs dominate headlines. There is fear of massive disruptions of global supply chains. Vietnam tops the at-risk list; its trade surplus with the US soared to a record high last year.
But a crisis can spell opportunities. The dominant mantra in this region, as in India, is the need to remain adaptive and ambitious, which means deeper intra-ASEAN coordination and deepening of partnerships with other countries to cope with uncertainties surrounding US foreign policy under Trump 2.0.
“Southeast Asian countries should gird themselves against the worst impulses of the Trump administration while ensuring they are not dragged too far into China’s orbit, thus maintaining ASEAN’s non-alignment. Southeast Asian countries should be prepared to conduct diplomacy with Trump with their own transactional approaches. They should be prepared to offer something beneficial to the table in any negotiation with the United States, rather than continuing to expect Washington’s generosity based on principles like shared values or support for a rules-based order. While it might be tempting for Southeast Asian countries to maintain ties with Washington by offering to be an instrument for countering China, they should be aware of the high risk of retaliation from Beijing,” observes Henrick Tsjeng, a research scholar with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, in a recent essay.
Tsjeng urges ASEAN to “deepen its partnerships with other Indo-Pacific countries and middle powers.” On the security front, he suggests greater engagement between ASEAN and its many defence partners — Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea — through meetings and exercises, even as it maintains diplomacy with both Beijing and Washington.
Malaysia, the current chair of ASEAN, one of the world’s fastest-growing economic regions, speaks of strategic flexibility in an evolving geopolitical landscape. In 2023, ASEAN’s 10 member states had a total GDP of nearly $3.8 trillion. Malaysia has invited representatives from China and Arab Gulf states to the ASEAN summit in May.
In January 2025, Indonesia became the first Southeast Asian nation to formally join BRICS. Three other ASEAN countries — Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam — have now become the group’s partner countries to expand their strategic options in these tumultuous times.
India is seeking to address the US concerns about high tariffs and secure better trade terms while enhancing bilateral relations with key ASEAN nations and others. India and Malaysia have agreed to expedite the review of the Asean India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) for completion by 2025. India and Indonesia recently signed agreements in sectors such as defence, digital technology, and maritime security. India is actively pursuing FTAs with several key partners to diversify its trade relationships. Trade agreements between India and the United Kingdom as well as the European Union are in the works.
China has begun to focus more on internal measures to bolster economic growth. The Chinese government has increased support for domestic consumption to help sustain economic growth and for moving forward. China’s growth is tipped to be 4.8 per cent this year, followed by 4.4 per cent in 2026.
No one quite knows how cruel April will be. But the Trump administration’s explicit reaffirmation of American strength through trade and other policies is a wake-up call for the rest of the world. There will be new alignments.
Patralekha Chatterjee is a writer and columnist who spends her time in South and Southeast Asia, and looks at modern-day connects between the two adjacent regions. X: @Patralekha2011
