After the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, when India announced its intention to violate the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan called it a war action and threatened to attack India and use the nuclear bomb if needed.
A Pakistani leader even claimed that if the water of the Indus river was stopped, the bleeding would start. However, after India launched an airstrikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan on Tuesday and Wednesday midnight, Pakistan wisely said that if India does nothing else, it will not do anything. If you want to know the secret why Pakistan, who once became silent after the air strike, becomes necessary to get acquainted with the current economic situation of Pakistan.
Earlier in 2023, Pakistan was struggling with such an economic crisis that it was on the verge of bankruptcy. In May 2023, inflation in India’s neighboring country will increase to 40 percent. Pakistan, whose total economic size was $ 350 billion, was given a $ 3 billion bailout package by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at that time, due to which Pakistan narrowly escaped the bankruptcy. Apart from the IMF, Pakistan also borrowed from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2023, which has not yet been repaid.
However, the matter does not stop here. After 2023, the IMF approved the loan of another $ 7 billion for Pakistan. Out of this, $ 1 billion was to be given to Pakistan immediately and the remaining 6 billion dollars were to be given in the next three years, ie from 2025 to 2027. The mystery of why Pakistan cannot retaliate against India is hidden in the IMF meeting to be held on 9 May. In this meeting, the remaining $ 6 billion loans are to be reviewed out of the $ 7 billion loan package approved in 2024, but in addition, the IMF is proposing to provide a loan of $ 1.3 billion to Pakistan to Pakistan under the IMF climate flexibility program. However, the IMF has also imposed certain conditions to improve the economic situation for both earlier loans and later loans, which are given separately here. Now if Pakistan retaliates in response to an airstrike on India, it will not only get a new loan from the IMF, but is also likely that a loan of $ 6 billion already approved will also be in danger. The reason for this is that due to the expenditure incurred in war
The conditions set by the IMF are unlikely to be fulfilled in the near future.
Earlier, when for Pakistan in September 2024
When the IMF approved a $ 7 billion loan, India was absent in voting, showing humanity. However, if Pakistan retaliates, India will naturally vote against this proposal. This is something that Pakistan cannot tolerate under any circumstances. India can make an excuse while voting against the proposal that money is being misused to support terrorist attacks.
Thus, from a global perspective, the situation in Pakistan is like a person who lives in a hut with a Mercedes car and threatens that if India attacks him, he will use nuclear weapons, because he has a atomic power. Such a person cannot even spend money on petrol to run Mercedes. Similarly, if Pakistan dare to attack India, its billions of dollars loans can be stopped. Therefore, Pakistan is not even in a position to consider retaliation, retaliation.
Conservative position of Pakistan’s economy
In May 2023, inflation was 40 percent in May 2023, which has now been barely 10 percent after the IMF approved two loan packages, in comparison, the inflation rate in India is currently below three percent.
In June 2024, the central bank of Pakistan increased the benchmark interest rate to 22 percent to control inflation, which has now been reduced to 11 percent, while it is 6 percent in India.
Last year, Pakistan’s economy increased by 2.5 percent, which the World Bank has estimated that it would increase by 3 percent in the current financial year, compared to 6.5 percent in the last year.
Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves have recently increased to more than $ 15 billion, while India’s foreign exchange reserves are currently $ 688 billion.
