Even after 11 years, three Lok Sabha elections and two assembly polls, the Congress failed to win a single seat in the Delhi assembly election earlier this month. While this was not entirely unexpected, despite strong anti-incumbency against the AAP, the Congress party’s inability to shake off its image as an electoral non-starter in the fight for power in India’s capital comes as a big surprise.
The grand old party’s failure to position itself as a viable alternative to the BJP at the national level and regional parties in state elections makes the Congress a weak political force that has remained stuck in a cycle of constant survival struggle.
It is another matter that the BJP’s emphatic victory over the AAP in Delhi brought cheer to the Congress, which holds the latter primarily responsible for its electoral slide in the national capital as well as nationally due to a sustained anti-corruption campaign by AAP’s supremo Arvind Kejriwal against the Congress-led UPA government.
Apart from AAP, the other big beneficiary of the anti-corruption movement has been prime minister Narendra Modi and his party. Ironically, despite drawing a blank in Delhi for the third consecutive time, the Congress could take solace in the fact that its vote share has slightly improved from the 2020 election. Also, a fragmented and weak AAP is good news for the Congress.
But the issue here is not why and how the AAP lost Delhi but the electoral blow the Congress suffered, which has been the case with the party in election after election, both at the national and state levels, since 2014, save a few state poll victories.
Since the Lok Sabha election in June, all the hopes built up by the Congress party’s performance in the general election, indicating that the end of the BJP’s dominance had perhaps begun, have been shattered by the setbacks the grand old party has suffered in assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi.
There is little doubt that the 2024 general election showed that the BJP’s decline was real. Though its vote share declined only by a little over 1 percent, it resulted in the loss of 63 seats compared to the 2019 general election. Still, it managed to form the government for the third time under the same leader as prime minister, and its seat tally was also higher than any other party. This should have forced the Opposition, particularly the Congress, to quickly overcome its weaknesses and brace up for the assembly elections due later in the year. But it did not happen, and the Congress’ poor performance in state elections continues.
Blaming the BJP’s polarising politics, majority community appeasement and hard Hindutva narrative as the primary reason for the Congress party’s continued poor performance does not hide its failure to present itself as an alternative to the Hindutva party. Simple electoral arithmetic tells us that the BJP’s vote share in the last three general elections peaked at around 37.7 percent.
This means that more than 60 percent of voters are opposed to the BJP or are indifferent to its ideological agenda and saffron politics and, therefore, are potential voters for a credible alternative. What the Congress needs to do is present itself as a genuine alternative with an ideological vision that is opposed to the BJP.
Under the first-past-the-post system, even an anti-Hindutva, secular and social justice vision may not be enough to ensure the BJP’s defeat, given its expanded footprint over the past decade and the extent of contraction in the Congress’ vote share. Therefore, alongside an ideological vision, the Congress will need astute strategies to catalyse Opposition unity in which it will have to play the leadership role with humility and sagacity by accommodating conflicting interests, egos, and ambitions.
Equally important for the Congress is to revive and strengthen its organisational structure. When the fight against the BJP is ideological to save the Constitution and constitutional institutions, the Congress needs to create a strong election machinery that is as effective as the BJP’s highly resourced one.
The Congress party’s ambivalent ideological position has played a crucial role in its failures and decline. Its ideological incoherence and hesitation to unequivocally stand for secularism when it comes to confronting the BJP’s majoritarian politics has cost the party crucial support of minorities and other voters looking for an alternative to the BJP.
To stand as an ideological foe to the BJP, the Congress needs to reclaim and articulate a robust secular position that goes beyond symbolic gestures, which will differentiate itself from the BJP’s politics of ‘batenge toh katenge.’ This means standing against hate speech, discriminatory laws that target minorities and emphasising economic, social, and educational upliftment of the marginalised communities.
Apart from minorities, the Congress has also struggled to regain the support of the Dalit and Adivasi communities, many of whom have drifted towards the BJP and regional parties. To strengthen the party’s appeal among these marginalised communities, the Congress will have to go beyond its superficial and token gestures to address the concerns of Dalits and Adivasis like substantive policy reforms to address caste discrimination, caste-based violence, land rights and socio-economic inequality. By addressing these ideological and strategic issues, the Congress could present a more coherent and compelling alternative to the BJP that will resonate with a broad base of electorate.
To effectively challenge the BJP, not only does the Congress need to be realistic about its strengths and weaknesses, it also must present to the people an alternative and better vision that appeals to them and convinces them of its ability to implement it. Mere criticism of the BJP, its polarising politics and economic policies will not be enough.
There are many issues, both social and economic, on which it can take the fight to the BJP. But it needs a will, compelling narrative, messaging, and strategies to do that. After all, it is still the largest party after the BJP and has a presence in all the states.
The writer is a senior independent Mumbai-based journalist. He tweets at @ali_chougule.
