The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, faces a daunting challenge in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, set for October or November, amid the political ripples of Operation Sindoor and the Centre’s recent caste census announcement. Operation Sindoor, a May 2025 military strike responding to the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people, has unleashed a wave of nationalist sentiment across India, including Bihar, strengthening the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Centre’s April 2025 decision to include caste enumeration in the upcoming national census has further complicated Bihar’s political narrative, intensifying caste-based mobilisation. The Mahagathbandhan must navigate four critical struggles: countering the BJP’s nationalism-driven narrative, managing Congress’s criticism of Operation Sindoor, resolving internal alliance tensions, and addressing the threat of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which could fragment RJD’s vote share.
Operation Sindoor has galvanised nationalist fervour in Bihar, with public celebrations and temple prayers amplifying the NDA’s “national security” narrative. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invocation of the operation in rallies has solidified the BJP’s image as a defender of India’s sovereignty, resonating with Bihar’s defence families and patriotic voters. The RJD, under Tejashwi Yadav, has supported the army’s actions, praising their precision, but struggles to critique the government without appearing anti-national. Congress, however, has consistently attacked Operation Sindoor, questioning the ceasefire agreement and alleged foreign mediation, a stance that risks alienating voters and creating a narrative rift within the Mahagathbandhan. This discord undermines the alliance’s my-baap strategy—targeting Muslims, Yadavs, Bahujans, forward castes, women, and the poor—as Congress’s criticism dilutes the RJD’s social justice pitch in a climate dominated by nationalism.
The Centre’s caste census announcement, made on April 30, 2025, ahead of Bihar’s elections, has reshaped the state’s political narrative, building on the 2023 Bihar caste survey that pegged the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) at 63% of the population. The decision, seen as a tactical move to counter the opposition’s social justice plank, has intensified caste-based politics. The RJD and Congress have claimed credit, with Rahul Gandhi asserting that his advocacy forced the BJP’s hand, while Nitish Kumar positions himself as a pioneer of caste justice. However, the BJP aims to neutralise the Mahagathbandhan’s narrative by framing the census as a tool for equitable welfare, not just reservations, thus appealing to OBCs and EBCs without alienating upper castes. This shift challenges the RJD’s ability to leverage caste for electoral gains, as the NDA’s “double engine” governance narrative—combining Nitish’s EBC outreach with BJP’s nationalism—gains traction. The census debate risks overshadowing the RJD’s focus on jobs and development, especially as voters weigh nationalist sentiment against caste-based promises.
The internal discord further weakens the Mahagathbandhan. Seat-sharing remains unresolved, with the RJD pushing to reduce the Congress’s share, while the Congress is not agreeing, citing its revival under leaders like Rajesh Ram. The RJD’s elevation of Tejashwi as the coordination committee chairman signals his leadership, but the Congress’s reluctance to endorse him as the chief ministerial face fuels tensions. The 2024 inclusion of Rajesh Ranjan (Pappu Yadav) in Congress, claiming Purnia, has irked the RJD, which sees little electoral value in his Yadav base. These fractures, compounded by the Left’s demand for more seats, could undermine the campaign unity, allowing the NDA’s cohesive alliance to dominate.
Also, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party poses a significant threat to the RJD’s vote share. Launched with a caste-neutral, governance-focused agenda, Jan Suraaj targets youth and urban voters with promises of education and jobs. Its 10% vote share in 2024 bypolls and 23% in Imamganj signal its potential to split the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav base, especially with Kishor’s plan to field 40 Muslim candidates. This “vote-cutter” effect, particularly among non-Yadav OBCs and Muslims (32% of Bihar’s population), could erode the RJD’s margins in close contests, as seen in Ramgarh’s 2024 bypoll. The RJD’s dismissal of Jan Suraaj as marginal ignores its disruptive potential in a polarised, post-Sindoor environment.
The Mahagathbandhan’s success hinges on overcoming these challenges. It must unify its narrative, balancing national pride with social justice, especially as the caste census amplifies the OBC and EBC demands. Resolving internal disputes, strengthening the Congress’s electoral viability, and countering Jan Suraaj’s inroads are critical. Tejashwi’s record of delivering five lakh jobs as deputy chief minister (2022-23) offers a foundation, but the alliance’s fragmented response to Operation Sindoor and the caste census’s politicisation threaten its prospects. Without a strategic recalibration, the Mahagathbandhan risks ceding Bihar to the NDA’s nationalist and caste-inclusive momentum.
The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh.
