What is Shimla Agreement: In Pahalgam in Kashmir Valley, terrorists targeted Hindu tourists and attacked a cruel attack. Many people have lost their lives in this attack by Pakistani terrorists. In such a situation, India has now taken strict steps against Pakistan. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting with the Cabinet Committee on Security Affairs, taking big decisions. India has now suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan and canceled the SAARC Visa Rebate Scheme (SVES) for Pakistani citizens. Additionally, Defense, Navy and Air Force advisors of the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi have been declared ‘unwanted person’. Troubled by this move, now discussions of cancellation of the Shimla Agreement in Pakistan are gaining momentum.
According to Pakistani media, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has called an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) on Thursday morning, considering the cancellation of the Shimla Agreement. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on the social media platform X, “The meeting has been called to respond to India’s recent statements and works.” Pakistani Defense Minister Khwaja Asif claimed on a TV channel that Pahalgam attack has no connection with Pakistan and the violence in many parts of India is the result of “domestic extremism”.
A Pakistani newspaper has written that if Pakistan’s access to the Indus river water threatens, then the foundation of other bilateral agreements may also be weakened. In response to this, Pakistan may consider the Line of Control (LOC) as well as the cancellation of the Shimla Agreement establishing other ceasefire systems. This issue is being discussed a lot in Pakistani media.
What is the Shimla Agreement?
The Shimla agreement was the result of several talks held in Shimla, the capital of Himachal Pradesh from 28 June to 2 July 1972. It was signed by the then Prime Minister of India Indira Gandhi and the then President of Pakistan Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. The agreement was reached after the 1971 war to reduce tension and promote peaceful co-existence between the two countries. In the war, India not only defeated Pakistan military but also liberated East Pakistan (today’s Bangladesh) and divided Pakistan into two parts. Additionally, India took over more than 93,000 Pakistani troops captive and captured about 5,000 square miles of Pakistani land. The Shimla Agreement is more than a peace treaty, it provides an outline for future relations between the two countries. Its main objective is to resolve issues arising after the war, such as the return of prisoners, exchange of occupied areas and Kashmir disputes.
Bilateral settlement theory
The most important provision of this agreement was that India and Pakistan would resolve all their disputes, especially the disputes related to Jammu and Kashmir through bilateral talks. This was a strategic move to prevent the issue from being raised from being raised in international forums like the United Nations.
Line of Control (LoC)
The agreement laid the condition that the two countries would honor the Line of Control established after the ceasefire on 17 December 1971. It was recognized as the Line of Real Control (LoC) and the two sides agreed that they would not try to change it unilaterally.
Return of areas and exchange of prisoners
India agreed to return the regions of Western Pakistan occupied in the war and release 90,000 Pakistani prisoners. In return, Pakistan promised to recognize Bangladesh and normalize bilateral relations.
Encourage peace and cooperation
The two countries vowed to respect each other’s regional integrity and sovereignty, avoid using force and follow the principles of peaceful co-existence. It was agreed to take steps to promote trade, communication and cultural exchange.
Nuclear stability
The agreement emphasized to reduce the risk of nuclear war and promote regional stability. The two countries reiterated their commitment to the principles of the United Nations Charter.
Influence of shimla agreement
The Shimla Agreement was India’s significant success in removing the Kashmir issue from international forums to bilateral levels. At the same time, India ensured that no third party, such as the United Nations or any other country, would interfere in Kashmir.
The agreement contributed immediately to reduce military tension and promote stability in South Asia. The unplanned military growth stopped with the establishment of the ceasefire system and the establishment of the Line of Control.
The 1971 war and the Shimla Agreement established India as a regional power. Under Indira Gandhi’s firm leadership, India emerged as a serious player on the global stage.
Pakistan achieved its prisoners and regions back, but failed to make Kashmir an international issue. Additionally, repeated violations of the provisions of agreement such as conflict along the Line of Control and encouragement of terrorism led to reduced its credibility.
So only India will benefit from this.
There is a discussion in the Pakistani media that Pakistan may consider cancellation of the Shimla Agreement. If this happens, it will have serious consequences for Pakistan.
Freedom from international pressure on Kashmir issue
The Shimla Agreement is the basis for keeping Kashmir a bilateral issue. If Pakistan cancels it, India can argue that Pakistan itself has rejected the agreement, which will give India the freedom to further strengthen its policies on Kashmir. India can claim that Kashmir is our internal matter and we can decide on it without any external pressure.
Diplomatic separation
The cancellation of the agreement will weaken Pakistan’s diplomatic credibility. The global community will consider it an irresponsible step, which may make Pakistan isolated internationally. India can take advantage of this situation and expose Pakistan as sponsors of terrorism.
Military and strategic freedom
The Line of Control was recognized as a permanent limit in the Shimla Agreement. If it is canceled, India can see it as an opportunity and adopt a more aggressive strategy in Pakistan -occupied Kashmir (POK), especially beyond the Line of Control. India can promote development projects in PoK or establish direct contact with the people there.
Effect on relations with China
The cancellation of the Shimla Agreement will give India an opportunity to raise more questions on projects like China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as it passes through PoK. India can present it as a step against its regional integrity.
Pakistan’s possible waste
The cancellation of the Shimla Agreement will be a suicide step for Pakistan. The agreement is a symbol of Pakistan’s commitment to the international community. Its cancellation can completely destroy Pakistan’s credibility and it may be more isolated on global forums.
Pakistan has tried to raise the issue of Kashmir on forums like United Nations several times, but it has not been able to succeed due to the Shimla Agreement. Even if the agreement is canceled, the international community may consider Kashmir as an internal matter of India, as global powers have supported India’s stand after cancellation of Article 370. If the agreement is canceled, India can adopt a more aggressive stance on the Line of Control, which can cause military and economically heavy losses to Pakistan. Pakistan’s already weak economy will not be able to withstand this extra pressure.
The cancellation of the Shimla Agreement will further expose Pakistan’s record in sponsoring terrorism. This can lead to strict action against Pakistan by organizations like FATF, which may further affect its economy. Pakistan is already facing political instability and economic crisis. The cancellation of the agreement will increase tension with India, which will affect Pakistan’s internal security. The separatist movements in Balochistan and other regions may intensify.
Why is there a demand to cancel it in Pakistan?
Pakistani media and analysts claim that India’s recent move, especially the Sindhu Water Treaty, is a major setback for Pakistan’s economy and agriculture. 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture is dependent on the Indus river system. Some experts believe that cancellation of the Shimla Agreement may be a strategy to pressurize India, but this may increase regional tension.
India has made it clear that Pakistan-backed terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba is behind the Pahalgam attack. The Ministry of External Affairs said, ‘India has a zero tolerance policy towards terrorism. Strict action will be taken against those responsible for the attack. India has also decided to call an all -party meeting on 24 April, in which further strategy will be discussed under the chairmanship of Defense Minister Rajnath Singh.
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