A new analysis of U.S. government visa data has revealed a significant 28% drop in Indian student enrolments between March 2024 and March 2025. This marks a sudden reversal of the growth trend from the nation that has been a leading source of international students for American universities for years.
The information, which was taken from the U.S. Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), was examined by Professor Chris Glass, who is an expert on higher education at Boston College. Glass estimates the overall 11% decline in foreign student numbers across all countries could lead to an economic loss of up to $4 billion, owing to reduced tuition revenue and living expenses.
While foreign undergraduate enrolments have remained mostly stable, the impact has been most severe at the postgraduate level. Master’s programmes—especially in STEM fields, where Indian students dominate—saw a 20.5% drop.
Glass emphasised the vital role of Indian students in sustaining America’s scientific and research ecosystem. “International graduate students aren’t just a source of income—they are critical scientific infrastructure. In many fields, they are the backbone of American innovation,” he said according to ICEF monitor.
What’s causing the decline?
Glass say a combination of factors is behind the sudden drop:
• Rising visa refusal rates have created uncertainty for Indian applicants.
• Delays in visa processing and affordability issues have deterred people from coming to the U.S.
• Competing countries like Canada and Australia are offering more promising post-study work and immigration pathways.
• Reports of mistreatment of Indian students in the U.S. have further dented trust. One high-profile case involved Ranjani Srinivasan, a Fulbright scholar at Columbia University, whose visa was suddenly revoked after participating in pro-Palestine protests. Immigration officials reportedly raided her dorm, forcing her to flee to Canada.
Policy and funding shifts may worsen outlook
Glass warns that the situation could deteriorate further if proposed travel restrictions under a potential Trump administration come into force. Moreover, major funding cuts to research agencies like the National Science Foundation and the NIH threaten to dry up the very support that sustains thousands of Indian graduate students through assistantships.
He estimates that between 50,000 and 77,000 international STEM graduate students could be affected by these financial shifts—roughly 10% of the international STEM cohort in the U.S.
While official enrolment figures from the Institute of International Education (IIE) are due in November, Glass believes the warning signs are already clear. “The dashboard is flashing red,” he says. “If this continues, it could reshape American higher education in ways that are hard to undo.”
