One singular, if unfortunate, achievement of Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president has been the accelerating collapse of the 80-year-old security arrangement between the US and Europe.
For decades, the U.S. has been the foremost security provider for NATO, a role that European nations took for granted. But Trump, true to his reputation as a disruptor, has forced Europe to rethink its dependence on American military support. His past remarks and actions, ranging from his bizarre suggestion to buy Greenland to his threats of trade tariffs against the EU, had already made European leaders uneasy.
Now, his stance on Ukraine has only deepened those concerns. His apparent willingness to settle the war on terms favourable to Vladimir Putin, even suggesting that Ukraine could face extinction as a nation, has been a wake-up call for Europe. For three years, Ukraine has defied expectations, standing firm against Russian aggression despite overwhelming odds.
Russia, for its part, has struggled to maintain its offensive, suffering approximately 2,000 casualties for every kilometre gained. It has even failed to dislodge three Ukrainian brigades from the Kursk region. Given these realities, a U.S.-brokered settlement on Russian terms would be disastrous, not just for Ukraine, but for all of Europe. European leaders understand that Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine; conceding to him now would only embolden further aggression.
Faced with this grim possibility, European leaders are increasingly vocal about the need for self-reliance in defence. The EU’s NATO members collectively boast a GDP of $23 trillion, ten times that of Russia, giving them the economic muscle to sustain Ukraine’s war effort without relying on Washington’s whims.
Over the past three years, Ukrainian forces have mastered the use of sophisticated Western weaponry, whether American or European, proving their ability to hold the line against Russia. This resilience is precisely why Ukraine has not only survived but continues to stand up to Putin. Yet, with Trump’s erratic leadership threatening to weaken NATO’s unity, Europe can no longer afford to depend on U.S. goodwill.
The continent must accelerate efforts to build an independent defence industry and develop military technology that rivals or even surpasses American capabilities. In the immediate future, the EU must also expedite Ukraine’s NATO membership. This move would force the U.S., even under Trump, to honour its collective defence obligations under Article 5. But beyond Trump’s presidency, Europe must recognise a long-term truth: its security cannot be left to the mercy of an unpredictable American leader.
