The Taliban’s recent counterattacks and capturing of Pakistani military posts near the Durand Line besides killing 19 soldiers underscore the growing militancy threat in Pakistan’s tribal regions. These offensives expose Islamabad’s waning control over its borders and highlight the resurgence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), emboldened by ideological alignment and cross-border support from Afghanistan’s Taliban.
For Pakistan, the implications are severe, as heightened instability jeopardizes its national security and economic revival efforts. The escalating violence risks further straining its overstretched military and increasing public dissent against state policies.
Russia’s concern stems from regional instability affecting its strategic interests. Central Asia, a critical buffer zone for Moscow, is vulnerable to the spill over of extremism. Moreover, Russia’s deepening ties with Pakistan for defence cooperation could be jeopardized if Islamabad fails to curb terrorism. Moscow also views an unstable Afghanistan-Pakistan nexus as detrimental to its goals of securing influence in the region amid waning U.S. engagement.
This volatile situation demands coordinated regional efforts to prevent a full-blown security crisis. However, Pakistan’s dependence on the Taliban for strategic depth complicates counterterrorism measures, leaving the region and Russia on edge.
In a related development, Pakistan’s earlier airstrike against Afghanistan thereby killing 46 people could change geo-political dynamics in 2025 thereby impacting South Asia policy as it will lead to an open confrontation with the Taliban regime which had retaliated ferociously.
Ironically, Pakistan, a known mentor and protector of terror groups on its soil, is now bearing the brunt of terrorism within its borders and heading towards increasingly strained relations with Afghanistan. Pakistan’s decades-long proxy war in the Kashmir Valley, orchestrated through terrorist networks, continues unabated and now it has opened a new front against the Taliban—a stance that may prove costly in the future.
A cursory look at Doha accord signed on Feb 29, 2020 aimed at facilitating the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan to establish conditions for peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban fell flat. But a picture of celebrations by former Prime Minister, Imran Khan’s the then ISI chief (Inter-Services Intelligence), Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed in a five-star hotel in Kabul had gone viral as he projected it as a victory of mediation of his country. It reflected the psyche of Pakistan to exhibit the world that India has been kept out of the dialogue and Afghanistan will be a close ally in the future.
Ironically both have adopted an extreme postures which may provide an opportunity to further strengthen ties with Taliban. An initiative has already been taken as the Taliban regime has recently appointed a representative in India, marking a significant step in its attempt to strengthen diplomatic ties in the region following its takeover of Afghanistan. This role is aimed at engaging with India’s interests and fostering communication between the two entities.
Against this backdrop, everything has gone haywire as Pakistan has indulged in most daring airstrikes against civilians and the Taliban may retaliate in the most aggressive manner which will further escalate the tensions. The tragic Pakistan airstrike that reportedly killed 46 people mainly women and children underscores a complex web of underlying factors responsible for such confrontations.
The Taliban’s retaliatory action along the Durand Line has heightened tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, driving a wedge between the once-allied neighbours. The Taliban’s growing assertiveness, including border skirmishes and dismantling of Pakistan’s fencing, has exposed deep-seated disagreements. Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes have further strained ties, with both sides accusing each other of violating territorial integrity. The Taliban, emboldened by their domestic consolidation, are resisting Pakistan’s influence, signalling a shift from their earlier dependency. This rift undermines regional stability, with both nations diverging on strategic priorities, raising concerns over intensified conflicts and deteriorating bilateral relations in an already volatile region. The TTP could leverage the strikes to gain sympathy among local populations and portray itself as a defender against “foreign aggression.”
Implications for Regional Stability: Escalating Violence: Airstrikes from both sides could provoke retaliatory attacks by the TTP, deepening the cycle of violence. Afghanistan’s Role: The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance to act against TTP sanctuaries might worsen relations with Pakistan, complicating peace efforts. Global Concerns: The international community might view Pakistan’s actions as an escalation, urging restraint while also pressuring the Taliban to curtail TTP activities. Pakistan’s move signals its desperation to tackle an evolving security threat, but it risks exacerbating tensions with the Taliban and destabilizing the region further.
Pakistan’s decision to conduct airstrikes, particularly within its own territory or in neighbouring regions, is often driven by a mix of internal security challenges, regional dynamics, and strategic considerations. Reasons for Pakistan’s Opting for Airstrikes: Escalation of Militancy: Pakistan has witnessed a resurgence of militant activities, especially from groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The group has carried out high-profile attacks, targeting security forces and civilians, necessitating a decisive military response. Breakdown of Peace Negotiations: Earlier attempts to negotiate peace with the TTP have failed, leaving military action as the only viable option to curb the group’s influence. Pressure to Demonstrate Sovereignty: With militant groups operating in border regions and occasionally receiving tacit support from factions within Afghanistan, Pakistan’s military is feeling compelled to assert its sovereignty through force. International Image: Airstrikes are also a signal to the international community that Pakistan is taking serious measures to counter terrorism within its borders. Collapsing Internal Security: Rising public discontent over the inability to contain militancy has likely pushed the military to act decisively.
Pakistan’s extreme action may serve as a way to reassure citizens and maintain the military’s supremacy and authority. Reports suggest that the Afghan Taliban has been providing safe havens to TTP fighters, emboldening cross-border attacks. This complicates Pakistan’s security calculus, forcing it to adopt aggressive measures. The Afghan Taliban has been providing safe havens to TTP fighters, emboldening cross-border attacks. This complicates Pakistan’s security calculus, forcing it to adopt aggressive measures. The Durand Line, the contested border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, has been a hotspot for skirmishes. Pakistan views airstrikes as a means to secure its borders against incursions by militant groups with its military resources strained, Pakistan may view airstrikes as a cost-effective and impactful tool to target militant strongholds without engaging in prolonged ground operations. Pakistan’s fragile economy leaves little room for prolonged military campaigns. Airstrikes offer a quick, high-impact alternative to boots-on-the-ground warfare.
The growing enmity between the Taliban and Pakistan could act as a positive development for India in several ways, particularly in terms of regional stability, strategic leverage, and countering Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan. Weakening Pakistan’s Strategic Depth in Afghanistan: Loss of Influence: Pakistan has historically viewed Afghanistan as a “strategic backyard” and supported the Taliban to counter India’s presence. A rift with the Taliban diminishes Pakistan’s ability to use Afghanistan as a leverage point against India. Focus on Internal Security: Increased hostility with the Taliban could force Pakistan to divert resources and attention to its western borders and internal security challenges, reducing its focus on India. Reduction in Proxy Threats: Diminished Taliban Support for Pakistan’s Militants: The Afghan Taliban’s strained relations with Pakistan could result in less support for groups like the Haqqani Network and Lashkar-e-Taiba, which Pakistan often uses against India. Pressure on Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP): A hostile Taliban may continue sheltering the TTP, intensifying Pakistan’s domestic challenges and reducing its ability to sponsor cross-border terrorism in India.
Diplomatic and Strategic Opportunities for India: Closer Ties with Afghanistan: A Pakistan-Taliban rift creates an opportunity for India to re-establish its influence in Afghanistan, strengthening ties through humanitarian aid, infrastructure development, and trade. International Alignment: India can position itself as a stabilizing force in the region, garnering support from global powers seeking to counter terrorism and stabilize Afghanistan. Improved Regional Perception: With Pakistan losing credibility in Afghanistan, India’s image as a non-intrusive partner focused on development may gain traction.4. Enhanced Regional Stability: Containment of Pakistan’s Terror Machinery: A preoccupied Pakistan dealing with Taliban hostility may be less effective in supporting militant activities in Kashmir and other parts of India. Undermining the Durand Line Strategy: Afghanistan’s longstanding refusal to recognize the Durand Line (the border with Pakistan) aligns with India’s interest in countering Pakistan’s territorial ambitions. Geopolitical Leverage against Pakistan: Increased Isolation: A breakdown in Pakistan-Taliban relations may isolate Pakistan further in the Islamic world, reducing its ability to rally support against India on issues like Kashmir. Exploitation of Fissures: India can tactically highlight and exploit the growing tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban in its diplomatic engagements, weakening Pakistan’s narrative in international forums.
Challenges for India: While the fallout between Pakistan and the Taliban offers opportunities, there are potential challenges: Taliban’s Internal Instability: A destabilized Taliban regime could lead to a power vacuum, risking the rise of extremist groups that may target Indian interests. Need for Diplomatic Caution: India must navigate its re-engagement with Afghanistan carefully to avoid alienating the Taliban or provoking Pakistan into further aggression.
The enmity between the Taliban and Pakistan can be a strategic advantage for India, allowing it to weaken Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan and curb cross-border terrorism. However, India must tread cautiously, leveraging this shift to enhance its regional standing without becoming embroiled in Afghanistan’s internal conflicts. Effective diplomacy, strategic patience, and targeted engagement with Afghanistan will be key to maximizing this opportunity.
(Writer is a strategic affairs columnist and senior political analyst)
