West Asia is in turmoil again with the downfall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. The speed with which the rebels took over Damascus and toppled Assad has taken the world and geo-political strategists by surprise. Syria which has been ruled by an iron fist by the Assad family, Alawites, a minority Shia sect in a Sunni majority country, for the past 60-odd years, is now free of the clutches of a ruthless despot. Assad has fled to Russia where he and his family have been granted asylum. The leader of the rebels, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who heads the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a former Al Qaida operative turned moderate, whose focus is not Jihad but national liberation. The jubilation on the streets of Syria over the overthrow of Assad is an indication of how repressive his regime was. A brutal crackdown on the Arab Spring uprising plunged Syria into a nearly 14-year civil war that left the country ravaged and weakened, killing half a million people and displacing over 11 million.
The future of Syria is, however, uncertain. With both Iran and Russia losing their preeminence in the region, as the former is engaged in a war of attrition with Israel and the latter is preoccupied by the war on Ukraine, the USA and Israel are primed to dictate the future of the country. Already the US is targeting ISIS camps in Syria. Al-Golani’s role in the future of Syria will be worth watching. It is believed that he received the backing of Turkey’s Erdogan in his march towards Damascus. The Ba’ath party of Assad enjoyed the support of Iran’s Shia leadership as far as military supplies and funding were concerned. Now a weakened Iran, whose ally Hezbollah is facing a fierce Israeli offensive in Lebanon, has lost a valuable ally. It was funnelling arms and other supplies to Hezbollah via Syria. The Russian influence in Syria is also waning. The oppressive Assad regime for all its drawbacks was relatively secular. Now it is feared that sectarian conflicts and fundamentalist forces will gain primacy. After years of repression and misery, the Syrian people deserve a future that is bright. It is of utmost importance that the next government should focus on rebuilding the nation. Infrastructure, basic healthcare, housing and education must be the priority areas for the new dispensation. It remains to be seen how Israel and the US will oversee the transition in Syria. Another key factor is US President-elect Donald Trump whose stated intention is to finish off all anti-Israeli forces in the region. New Delhi, which has had friendly ties with Damascus, is keenly watching the situation and has advocated a Syrian-led peace initiative. West Asia, particularly Syria, may be in for a period of prolonged uncertainty. The latest developments may well see a redrawing of the map of the region.
